Not if they know what they are doing.  Is the problem that budget practices
bump up staffing once a year?  Otherwise, why don't you/they look at monthly
staffing practices?

Dan Williams

-----Original Message-----
From: Political Methodology Society [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Anna Maria Ortiz
Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2006 10:40 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [POLMETH] addendum - trend data

I should have also asked expressly whether anybody would buy the simplest
significance test, OLS with time as the independent variable,  for a five
data-point trend.

___________________________

Good morning -

A pair of economists has approached me wanting to use a Logest regression
(the kind available as an Excel function, not logistic) to determine whether
growth in staff levels at an organization is "significant" over a 5 year
period.  Although I can articulate concerns with the method and their
execution in particular, I'm having difficulty offering alternative firm
standards for "significant" growth.

Other than setting arbitrary standards (e.g. "a change of more than x% is
significant"), does anyone have thoughts on how to establish criteria for
whether a growth trend involving no independent variables is "significant"?
Any recommendations for models, standard levels, minimum data points in time
necessary, or references to peer-reviewed articles using Logest would be
greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

Anna Maria

Anna Maria Ortiz, Ph.D.
Senior Statistician
Applied Research and Methods
U.S. Government Accountability Office
(202) 512-2788
[log in to unmask]

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