title:         Expressive Bayesian Voters, their Turnout Decisions, and Double
Probit
authors:       Christopher Achen
entrydate:     2006-07-17 12:50:55
keywords:      turnout, expressive, Bayesian, probit, scobit, EITM
abstract:      Voting is an expressive act.  Since people are not born wanting
to express themselves politically, the desire to vote must be acquired, either
by learning about the candidates, by using party identification as a cognitive
shortcut, or by contact from a trusted source.  Modeled as Bayesian updating,
this simple explanatory framework has dramatic implications for the
understanding of voter turnout.  It mathematically implies the main empirical
generalizations familiar from the literature, it predicts hitherto unnoticed
patterns that appear in turnout data, it provides a better fitting statistical
model (double probit) for sample surveys of turnout, and it allows researchers
to forecast turnout patterns in new elections when circumstances change. Thus
the case is strengthened for the Bayesian voter model as a central organizing
principle for public opinion and voting behavior.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=618

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