Title:      Bayesian Analysis of Structural Changes: Historical
Changes in US Presidential Uses of Force Abroad

Authors:    Jong Hee Park

Entrydate:  2007-07-16 10:07:55

Keywords:   structural changes, changepoint models, discrete
time
series data, use of force data, state space models,
time-varying
parameter models, Bayesian inference

Abstract:   While many theoretical models in political science
are
inspired by structural changes in politics, most empirical
methods
assume stable patterns of causal processes and fail to capture
dynamic changes in theoretical relationships. In this paper, I
introduce an efficient Bayesian approach to the multiple
changepoint
problem presented by Chib (1998) and discuss the utility of the
Bayesian changepoint models in the context of generalized
linear
models. As an illustration, I revisit the debate over whether
and
how U.S. presidents have used forces abroad in response to
domestic
factors since 1890.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=704