title:         Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls
authors:       Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
entrydate:     2006-10-25 09:54:14
keywords:      generic ballot polls, forecast, 2006 midterm election, congressional seats, simulations
abstract:      We provide some guidance for translating the results of generic congressional polls into the election outcome for 2006.   Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome.  We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives.  Our model allows both a point forecast—our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats—and an estimate of the probability of partisan control.    Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=657

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