title:         Can political science literatures be believed? A study of publication bias in the APSR and the AJPS
authors:       Alan Geber, Neil  Malhotra
entrydate:     2006-09-07 12:25:26
keywords:      publication bias
abstract:      Despite great attention to the quality of research methods in individual studies, if the publication decisions of journals are a function of the statistical significance of research findings, the published literature as a whole may not produce an accurate measure of true effects. This paper examines the two most prominent political science journals (the APSR and the AJPS) and two major literatures in the discipline (the effect of negative advertisements and economic voting) to see if there is evidence of publication bias. We examine the effect of the .05 significance level on the pattern of published findings using what we term a “caliper” test and can reject the hypothesis of no publication bias at the 1 in 100,000,000 level. Our findings therefore strongly suggest that the results reported in the leading political science journals and in two important literatures are misleading and inaccurate due to publication bias. We also discuss some of the reasons for publication bias and propose reforms to reduce its impact on research.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=640

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