I would like to thank Langche Zeng for organizing the 2006 APSA
Panels, Roundtables, and Posters for the Political Methodology Section.

A detailed listing is provided below so that you can plan your APSA
attendance now.  Remember that our allocation of papers and panels is
based on attendance at the panels.  So I hope to see you there.

Cheers, Jan


Panels/Roundtables (Titles and Times)

     8-1   An Assessment of Forecasting in Political Science
           -->   Saturday, Sep 2, 8:00 AM
     8-2   Experimental Design, Measurement, and Causal Effect Estimation
           in Voting Studies
           -->   Friday, Sep 1, 2:00 PM
     8-3   New Methods for Studying Electoral Systems and Voting Behavior
           -->   Thursday, Aug 31, 4:15 PM
     8-4   Descriptive Inference: Is there a Method to Describing?
           -->   Saturday, Sep 2, 2:00 PM
     8-5   Examples of Multi-Method Research
           -->   Friday, Sep 1, 8:00 AM
     8-6   Political Methodology and Formal Theory
           -->   Thursday, Aug 31, 8:00 AM
     8-7   Methods for Causal Inference With Observational Data
           -->   Thursday, Aug 31, 10:15 AM
     8-8    Bayesian Inference
           -->   Sunday, Sep 3, 8:00 AM
     8-9   Spatial Models and Ideal Points Estimation
           -->   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM
     8-10   Modeling Preferences, Choices, and Vote Shares
           -->   Sunday, Sep 3, 10:15 AM
     8-11   Modeling Dependence in Time and Space
           -->   Saturday, Sep 2, 10:15 AM
     8-12   Methods for Analyzing Legislative Language, Networks, and
                 Organizations
           -->   Friday, Sep 1, 2:00 PM
     8-13   Analyzing Duration/Count/Time Series Data
           -->   Friday, Sep 1, 8:00 AM
     8-14   Measurement Issues in Survey Research
           -->   Thursday, Aug 31, 2:00 PM

Panels/Roundtables (Detailed listing)

Paper panels:

8-1.  An Assessment of Forecasting in Political Science

Date:   Saturday, Sep 2, 8:00 AM
         Co-sponsored by 21-15

Chair:  Philip A. Schrodt, [log in to unmask], University of Kansas

Participant(s):
Bruce J. Bueno de Mesquita, [log in to unmask], NYU/Stanford University
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, [log in to unmask], University of Iowa
Andrew D. Martin, [log in to unmask], Washington University
Philip A. Schrodt, [log in to unmask], University of Kansas
Jay Ulfelder, [log in to unmask], Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC)

8-2.  Experimental Design, Measurement, and Causal Effect Estimation
in Voting Studies

Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 2:00 PM
         Co-sponsored by 36-27

Chair: Matthew C. Harding, [log in to unmask], Massachusetts Institute
of Technology

Author(s): Conducting Experiments with Aggregated Units: A Primer on
Clustered Randomization.  Kevin Arceneaux, [log in to unmask],
Temple University, David W. Nickerson, [log in to unmask], University of
Notre Dame

Do Female Political Candidates Face Discrimination? A Regression
Discontinuity Design Analysis.  Daniel Mark Butler,
[log in to unmask], Stanford University

The Costs of Voting: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. John
E. McNulty, [log in to unmask], SUNY, Binghamton, Henry E. Brady,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Berkeley

Estimating the Effects of Group Randomized Trials Using Campaign
Advertising and Turnout. Lynn Vavreck, [log in to unmask], University
of California, Los Angeles, Donald P. Green, [log in to unmask],
Yale University

Discussant(s): Matthew C. Harding, [log in to unmask], Massachusetts
Institute of Technology

8-3.   New Methods for Studying Electoral Systems and Voting Behavior
Date:   Thursday, Aug 31, 4:15 PM
         Co-sponsored by 36-28

Chair:  Tatyana A. Karaman, [log in to unmask], Samford University

Author(s): A New Random Coefficients GMM Approach to Ecological
Inference. Matthew C. Harding, [log in to unmask], Massachusetts
Institute of Technology

Methods for Assessing Voting System Performance: Evaluating LA
County's InkaVote Using GIS. Iris Hui, [log in to unmask],
University of California, Berkeley, Henry E. Brady,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Berkeley

Measuring Spatial Variation in Determinants of Vote Choice Using
Geographically Weighted Regression.  Kyle Leiker, [log in to unmask],
University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

Lotto, Blotto, or Frontrunner: U.S. Presidential Elections and the
Nature of 'Mistakes'. Michael Tofias, [log in to unmask], Duke University
Michael C. Munger, [log in to unmask], Duke University

Discussant(s): Tatyana A. Karaman, [log in to unmask], Samford
University. Co-Discussant(s): Garrett Glasgow,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Santa Barbara


8-4   Descriptive Inference: Is there a Method to Describing?
Date:   Saturday, Sep 2, 2:00 PM
         Co-sponsored by 46-4

Chair: Bear F. Braumoeller, [log in to unmask], Harvard
University

Author(s): What Is the Difference Between Good Description and Bad
Description?  John Gerring, [log in to unmask], Boston University

Descriptive Statistical Inference Kevin M. Quinn,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University

The Shape of Political Participation: Descriptive Inference with
Normative and Scientific Implications. Jake Bowers,
[log in to unmask], University of Michigan


Discussant(s): Bear F. Braumoeller, [log in to unmask], Harvard
University. Co-Discussant(s): Alexander Wendt, [log in to unmask], The
Ohio State University


8-5     Examples of Multi-Method Research
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 8:00 AM
         Co-sponsored by 46-16

Chair: Rose McDermott, [log in to unmask], University of
California, Santa Barbara

Author(s): The Calculus of Patient Advocacy in FDA Drug Review:
Stories and Models. Daniel P. Carpenter, [log in to unmask],
Harvard University

Using Multiple Methods to Study Multiple Marginalization: Qualitative,
Quantitative, and Normative Approaches to Studying the Intersectional
Politics of Racial, Gender, and Income Inequalities. Dara
Z. Strolovitch, [log in to unmask], University of Minnesota, Twin
Cities

A Multi-Method Exploration of Truth Commissions. Eric Brahm,
[log in to unmask], University of Colorado

Was Iraq a Threat to International Peace and Security? Methodological
Insights to Explore the Question. Laura Sjoberg,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University. Christopher
Marcoux, [log in to unmask], University of Massachusetts
Amherst

Qualitative and Quantitative Methods: Can They Be Joined?  Nathaniel
Beck, [log in to unmask], New York University


Discussant(s): Rose McDermott, [log in to unmask], University
of California, Santa Barbara

8-6   Political Methodology and Formal Theory
Date:   Thursday, Aug 31, 8:00 AM
         Co-sponsored by 4-8

Chair: Scott E. Page, [log in to unmask], University of Michigan

Author(s): Modeling the Diffusion of Democracy: An Exercise in the
Empirical Validation of an Agent-Based Model. Jos Elkink,
[log in to unmask], Trinity College Dublin

Continuous Choice Quantal Response Estimation of a Principal-Agent
Model.  Justin E. Esarey, [log in to unmask], Florida State University

Dynamics of Two-Party Competition: Empirical Estimation of a
Theoretical Model. Tasos Kalandrakis, [log in to unmask],
University of Rochester Arthur Spirling, [log in to unmask],
University of Rochester

Political Threats and Patterns of Campaign Contributions: A
Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.  Ethan Kaplan, [log in to unmask],
Stockholm University

Discussant(s): Scott E. Page, [log in to unmask], University of Michigan


8-7   Methods for Causal Inference With Observational Data
Date:   Thursday, Aug 31, 10:15 AM

Chair: Jake Bowers, [log in to unmask], University of Michigan

Author(s): The Balance Test Fallacy in Matching Methods. Kosuke Imai,
[log in to unmask], Princeton University.  Gary King,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University

Causal Inference with a Synthetic Counterfactual: The Case of
California's 3-Strikes Program. Alexis J. Diamond,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University.  Jens Hainmueller,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University

When Fisher's Lady Tasting Tea Approaches the Threshold: Randomization
Inference and the Regression-Discontinuity Design. Holger Lutz Kern,
[log in to unmask], Cornell University.  Jens Hainmueller,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University

Formal Sensitivity Analysis and the Study of Politics. Kevin
A. Clarke, [log in to unmask], University of Rochester

Discussant(s): Jake Bowers, [log in to unmask], University of
Michigan. Daniel J. Hopkins, Harvard University


8-8    Bayesian Inference
Date:   Sunday, Sep 3, 8:00 AM

Chair: Kosuke Imai, [log in to unmask], Princeton University

Author(s): Polling and Smoothing the Polls Over an Election Campaign.
Simon D. Jackman, [log in to unmask], Stanford University

All Change! Applications of Bayesian Structural Break Modeling in
Political Science. Arthur Spirling, [log in to unmask], University
of Rochester

Are You with Me or Not? Strategic Voting in the U.N. Security Council
Using Dynamic Ideal Point Estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
Daniel B. Krug, [log in to unmask], University of Colorado, Boulder.
Monika A. Klimek, [log in to unmask], University of Colorado,
Boulder

Ecological Inference for 2 x 4 Tables. J. Kevin Corder,
[log in to unmask], Western Michigan University. Christina
Wolbrecht, [log in to unmask], University of Notre Dame


Discussant(s): Kosuke Imai, [log in to unmask], Princeton University
Co-Discussant(s): Shawn Treier, [log in to unmask], University of
Georgia


8-9   Spatial Models and Ideal Points Estimation
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

Chair: Joshua D. Clinton, [log in to unmask], Princeton University

Author(s): Rationalizable Voting Records. Tasos Kalandrakis,
[log in to unmask], University of Rochester

Estimating Legislative Party Cohesion and Ideal Points with Frequent
Abstentions with an Application to Brazil. Scott W. Desposato,
[log in to unmask], University of California, San Diego

A New Approach to Optimal Classification. Alexander Moss Tahk,
Stanford University

Specifying the Spatial Model of Politics Michael. Peress,
[log in to unmask], Carnegie Mellon University


Discussant(s): Joshua D. Clinton, [log in to unmask], Princeton
University Co-Discussant(s): Jeffrey B. Lewis,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Los Angeles

8-10   Modeling Preferences, Choices, and Vote Shares
Date:   Sunday, Sep 3, 10:15 AM
Chair: Marcus Alexander, Harvard University

Author(s): Assessing Issue-Oriented Voting When Voters Have
Nonseparable Preferences. Dean P. Lacy, [log in to unmask], Ohio State
University

Heterogeneity and Choice Models: Alternatives and Comparisons.  Luke
Keele, [log in to unmask], Ohio State University.  David K. Park,
[log in to unmask], Washington University

Analysis of Voteshares Across Party Systems. James Honaker,
[log in to unmask], University California, Los Angeles


Discussant(s): Gregory J. Wawro, [log in to unmask], Columbia
University. Co-Discussant(s): Karen Long Jusko, [log in to unmask],
University of Michigan


8-11   Modeling Dependence in Time and Space
Date:   Saturday, Sep 2, 10:15 AM

Chair: Nathaniel Beck, [log in to unmask], New York University

Author(s): Missing Data Models for Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data.
James Honaker, [log in to unmask], University California, Los Angeles
Gary King, [log in to unmask], Harvard University

Modeling Diffusion Processes with Spatial Lags: Some Problems and
Solutions. Jude C. Hays, [log in to unmask], University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign.  Robert J. Franzese, [log in to unmask], University
of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Scaling Dimension of Political Preferences. David A. Meyer,
[log in to unmask], University of California, San Diego

Bayesian Spatial Survival Models in Political Science. David Darmofal,
[log in to unmask], University of South Carolina.  Lyndsey Young,
[log in to unmask], Ohio State University


Discussant(s): Nathaniel Beck, [log in to unmask], New York
University


8-12. Methods for Analyzing Legislative Language, Networks, and
Organizations
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 2:00 PM

Chair:  Kevin A. Clarke, [log in to unmask], University of Rochester

Author(s): Legislative Language and Heresthetics. Burt L. Monroe,
[log in to unmask], Michigan State University.  Kevin M. Quinn,
[log in to unmask], Harvard University.  Michael Crespin,
[log in to unmask], University of Georgia

The Social Basis of Legislative Organization. James H. Fowler,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Davis

The Congressional Campaign Network: Candidate-Consultant Linkage in
House Races, 1996-2004. Joseph W. Doherty, [log in to unmask],
University of California, Los Angeles

Co-Sponsorship Networks of Minority-Supported Legislation in the
House.  David L. Epstein, [log in to unmask], Columbia University.
Sharyn O'Halloran, [log in to unmask], Columbia University


Discussant(s): Andrew D. Martin, [log in to unmask], Washington
University. Co-Discussant(s): Kevin A. Clarke,
[log in to unmask], University of Rochester

8-13   Analyzing Duration/Count/Time Series Data
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 8:00 AM

Chair:  Brandon L. Bartels, [log in to unmask], Stony Brook University

Author(s): Congress and Supreme Court Over Time: Using a Frailty Model
in a Split Population Analysis. Roman Ivanchenko,
[log in to unmask], Ohio State University

The power to remove as political survival: Simultaneous equations in
survival models. Alejandro Quiroz-Flores, [log in to unmask], New York
University

Modeling Time Dependent Event Count Series Using Poisson Markov
Mixture Model. Jong Hee Park, [log in to unmask], Washington
University in St. Louis

Dynamic Cointegration and the Strategic Behavior of Parties,
1789-2000.  Matthew Lebo, [log in to unmask], SUNY, Stony
Brook Gregory Koger, [log in to unmask], University of Montana


Discussant(s): Brandon L. Bartels, [log in to unmask], Stony Brook
University. Co-Discussant(s): Luke Keele, [log in to unmask],
Ohio State University


8-14   Measurement Issues in Survey Research
Date:   Thursday, Aug 31, 2:00 PM

Chair: Matthew A. Baum, [log in to unmask], University of California, Los
Angeles

Author(s): Ethnic Politics and Surveys: How Do We Measure What We Want
to Measure?  Daniel Corstange, [log in to unmask], University of
Michigan

The Meaning and Measurement of Value Conflict and Ambivalence In
Public Opinion Research. Ken Mulligan, [log in to unmask], University of
Georgia

Measuring Democratic Values in Longitudinal Research. Kuang-hui Chen,
[log in to unmask], University of California, Santa Barbara

Christian Right? Refining Survey Measurements of the Christian Right
Social Movement. Matthew Kristopher DeSantis, [log in to unmask],
University of Florida


Discussant(s): Darren Schreiber, [log in to unmask], University of
California, San Diego. Co-Discussant(s): Drew Linzer,
[log in to unmask], University of California-Los Angeles

---------------------------------------------------------

Posters: Poster Session II: Theory and Methodology (sub-groups
by substantive area)

---International Relations/Foreign Policy/Globalization
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

1. Cross-Country Counterfactuals: Matching in International Relations
and Comparative Politics, Alexis J. Diamond. Email:
[log in to unmask]

2. Taxing Places: Estimating Contextual Influence on Attitudes toward
Taxes. Mr. Daniel J. Hopkins. Email: [log in to unmask]

---Elections, Voting, Parties, Public Opinion
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

3. Voting Twice or a Statistical Coincidence?  Dr. Michael P. McDonald.
Email: [log in to unmask]

4. The Political Participation of the Poor and Redistributive Policy,
Ms. Karen Long Jusko. Email: [log in to unmask]

5. vb: Analyze Vote Behavior. Joan Serra, Email: [log in to unmask]

6. Interaction terms in nonlinear regression models. Dr. Jee-Kwang
Park. Email: [log in to unmask]

---Conflict and Cooperation
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

7. Geography and Conflict: A social network perspective, Peter M. Li.
Email: [log in to unmask]

---Interest Groups and Society
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

8. Universal Error Kriging: a new method for detecting second order
heteroskedasticity, Kyle Leiker. Email: [log in to unmask]

---Deliberative Democracy
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

9. spatial analysis of the XIII Italian Legislature, Dr. Riccardo
Pelizzo. Email: [log in to unmask]

---Identity/Culture
Date:   Friday, Sep 1, 10:15 AM

10. Whose blogs?/ who's blogging?: A multiple-methods analysis of the
formation of identities and communities in the blogosphere, Priya
Dixit. Email: [log in to unmask]






Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Vernal Riffe Professor of Political Science
Professor of Sociology
Director of the Program in Statistical Methodology
Mailing address: Department of Political Science
Ohio State University
2140 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall
Columbus, OH  43210-1373
Phone:  (614) 292-9642
Fax:  (614) 292-1146
Location:  2049S Derby Hall
E-mail: [log in to unmask]

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