Title:      Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social
Conformity on Voting and the Party System--2007 and 2008

Authors:    Stephen Coleman

Entrydate:  2009-01-30 13:31:54

Keywords:   Russia, elections, voting, political party system,
social conformity, social norms, mathematical model, entropy

Abstract:   In 2007 Russian voters elected representatives to
the State Duma under new electoral procedures that President V.
Putin had instituted. A presidential election followed in 2008
leading to Putin's new role as Prime Minister. To many
observers, the reforms and the election campaigns resulted in a
party system manipulated to the advantage of the government,
although Putin's reported goal was to reduce the number of
political parties. Earlier research [1,2,6] reported that social
conformity exerted a strong, persistent, and predictable
influence on voting in national elections from 1991 to 2003.
This analysis examines how the effect of social conformity on
Russian voters might have changed from earlier elections as a
result of the electoral reforms and campaign practices. Specific
questions addressed are how well the political party system now
aligns with the interests of voters, and whether this type of
analysis can speak to fairness of the elections. 

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=894

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