I should have also asked expressly whether anybody would buy the simplest significance test, OLS with time as the independent variable,  for a five data-point trend.

___________________________

Good morning -

A pair of economists has approached me wanting to use a Logest regression (the kind available as an Excel function, not logistic) to determine whether growth in staff levels at an organization is "significant" over a 5 year period.  Although I can articulate concerns with the method and their execution in particular, I'm having difficulty offering alternative firm standards for "significant" growth.

Other than setting arbitrary standards (e.g. "a change of more than x% is significant"), does anyone have thoughts on how to establish criteria for whether a growth trend involving no independent variables is "significant"?  Any recommendations for models, standard levels, minimum data points in time necessary, or references to peer-reviewed articles using Logest would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

Anna Maria

Anna Maria Ortiz, Ph.D.
Senior Statistician
Applied Research and Methods
U.S. Government Accountability Office
(202) 512-2788
[log in to unmask]

**********************************************************
             Political Methodology E-Mail List
        Editor: Karen Long Jusko <[log in to unmask]>
**********************************************************
        Send messages to [log in to unmask]
  To join the list, cancel your subscription, or modify
           your subscription settings visit:

          http://polmeth.wustl.edu/polmeth.php

**********************************************************