Dear colleagues:
A group of scholars and practitioners with an interest in
forecasting political phenomena is forming a new
organization under APSA's umbrella, and we are looking for
others who might wish to join.
The Political Forecasting Group aims to further forecasting
applications in political science, and to improve
communication among forecasters within the discipline. We
currently have about 85 participants, of whom nearly 70 are
APSA members. With support from the Political Methodology
and Conflict Processes Sections, we organized a roundtable
at the recently concluded APSA Annual Meeting that saw Drs.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Michael Lewis-Beck, Andrew Martin,
Phil Schrodt, and Jay Ulfelder discussing what, how, and why
they forecast, a list of topics that included congressional
elections, Supreme Court decisions, civil-war onsets, and
legislative outcomes. This fall, we will be applying for
APSA Related Group status and hope to convene a panel at
next year's meeting that will look at how various methods
might be applied to forecast a single kind of political
event or process.
If you would like to participate in the Political
Forecasting Group--which at this point primarily means being
on an e-mail list, no dues required--please send an e-mail
with the following information to Prof. Randall Jones, Univ.
of Central Oklahoma ([log in to unmask]):
Name
Institutional Affiliation
Title
Forecasting Interests
E-mail address
We hope to hear from some of you soon and look forward to
broadening our methodological horizons.
Regards,
Jay Ulfelder
Jay Ulfelder, Ph.D.
Research Director
Political Instability Task Force
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
(301) 588-8478
[log in to unmask]
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