Title:      What is the probability your vote will make a
difference?

Authors:    Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, Aaron Edlin

Entrydate:  2008-10-27 21:55:46

Keywords:   

Abstract:   One of the motivations for voting is that one vote
can make a difference. In a presidential election, the
probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the
probability your state is necessary for an electoral college
win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in
that event. We compute these probabilities for each state in the
2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election
forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single
vote is most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New
Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote has an approximate 1 in
10 million chance of determining the national election outcome.
On average, a voter in America has a 1 in 60 million chance of
being decisive in the presidential election.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=844

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