Political Methodologists:



My forecasts for the 2014 state legislative elections are available on
request at [log in to unmask]  A brief synopsis appears below.


Thanks,



Carl



Forecasts for the 2014 state legislative elections made by Political
Scientist Carl Klarner indicate that the Democrats will lose majorities in
five state senates and nine state houses.  Those state senates are
Colorado, Iowa, Maine, New York and Washington, while the state houses are
Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico,
Washington and West Virginia.  Forecasts were generated from analyses of
77,844 contested state legislative elections that occurred between 1968 and
2012.  National conditions were found to have a large effect on state
legislative elections and were used as predictors (state of the economy,
presidential approval, midterm penalty, Congressional vote intention).
Numerous race specific variables were also examined (incumbency, prior vote
in the district, etc.).  Specific predictions for the 3,157 contested state
legislative races in 2014 have also been publicized, as well as what
percentage of seats the Democrats are predicted to lose (and, rarely, gain)
in each legislative chamber.




-- 
Dr. Carl Klarner
[log in to unmask]

Visiting Scholar (Political Science)

Harvard University
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
http://www.iq.harvard.edu/people/carl-e-klarner

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