A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.

Title: Inferring Strategic Voting

Author(s): Kei Kawai and Yasutora Watanabe

Entry Date: 07-16-2010

Keyword(s): Partial Identification, Set Estimation, Strategic Voting

URL: http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1197

Abstract:

We estimate a model of strategic voting and quantify the impact it has on 
election outcomes. Because the model exhibits multiplicity of outcomes, we 
adopt a set estimator. Using Japanese general-election data, we find a 
large fraction [75.3%, 80.3%] of strategic voters, only a small fraction 
[2.4%, 5.5%] of whom voted for a candidate other than the one they most 
preferred (misaligned voting). Existing empirical literature has not 
distinguished between the two, estimating misaligned voting instead of 
strategic voting. Accordingly, while our estimate of strategic voting is 
high, our estimate of misaligned voting is comparable to previous studies.

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