howdy,

if you're interested in real-time forecasting in IR, or if you're simply interested in developments in Iraq, you might find some work my co-author, J. Michael Greig, and i are doing. relying on a medium-N, empirical study of insurgency in imposed political systems for the period 1816-1994 and King, et al.'s CLARIFY program, we've developed forecasts of the impact of several American force strategies (surge, escalation, withdrawal, and massive invasion) on insurgency in Iraq in 2008.  a non-technical report containing our forecasts is located here:

http://www.psci.unt.edu/enterline/ajejmgsurgev25c.pdf 

although we're committed to bringing our social scientific knowledge to bear on contemporary policy issues in world politics, we're new to this endeavor. thus, we welcome your comments, suggestions, reactions, etc., so that we might improve our skills.

we apologize for crossposts, but at the same time encourage you to flip this email to anyone that might find our forecasts of interest.

humbly submitted,

andrew enterline
for j. michael greig 

a.j.enterline
associate professor
university of north texas
dept. of political science
box 305340
denton, tx 76203-5340
(v) 940.565.2313
(f)  940.565.4818
email: [log in to unmask]
homepage: http://www.psci.unt.edu/enterline/enterline.htm

"I have come to the conclusion that this is no longer America’s war in Iraq, but the Iraqi civil war where
America is fighting," Major Voorhies said. 

[Marc Santora, "Sectarian Ties Weaken Duty’s Call for Iraq Forces," New York Times, December 28, 2006]