Title:      The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail:  A Regression
Discontinuity Approach

Authors:    Marc Meredith, Daniel Kessler, Alan Gerber

Entrydate:  2008-07-21 18:48:47

Keywords:   regression discontinuity, direct mail, persuasion,
turnout

Abstract:   During the contest for Kansas attorney general in
2006, an organization sent out 6 pieces of mail criticizing the
incumbent's conduct in office.  We exploit a discontinuity in
the rule used to select which households received the mailings
to identify the causal effect of mail on vote choice and voter
turnout.  We find these mailings had both a statistically and
politically significant effect on the challenger's vote share. 
Our estimates suggest that a ten percentage point increase in
the amount of mail sent to a precinct increased the challenger's
vote share by approximately three percentage points. 
Furthermore, our results suggest that the mechanism for this
increase was persuasion rather than mobilization.   

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=809

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