Title: Buying Votes with Public Funds in the US Presidential
Election: Are Swing or Core Voters Easier to Buy Off?
Authors: Jowei Chen
Entrydate: 2008-07-09 09:23:05
Keywords: distributive politics, voting, turnout, elections
Abstract: In the aftermath of the summer 2004 Florida
hurricane season, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
distributed $1.2 billion in disaster aid among 2.6 million
individual applications for assistance. This research measures
the relative costs and benefits of using FEMA aid to buy votes
from swing voters and core voters. First, I compare
precinct-level vote counts and individual voter turnout records
from the post-hurricane (November 2004) and pre-hurricane (2000
and 2002) elections to measure the effect of FEMA aid on Bush's
vote share. Using a two-stage least squares estimator, with
hurricane severity measures as instruments for FEMA aid, this
analysis reveals that core Republican voters are most
electorally responsive to FEMA aid -- $7,000 buys one additional
vote for Bush. By contrast, in moderate precincts, each
additional Bush vote costs $21,000, while voters in Democratic
neighborhoods are unresponsive to receiving FEMA aid.
Additionally, by tracking the geographic location of each aid
recipient, the data reveal that FEMA favored applicants from
Republican neighborhoods over those from Democratic or moderate
neighborhoods, even conditioning on hurricane severity, average
home values, and demographics. Collectively, these results
demonstrate the Bush administration's disproportionate
distribution of FEMA disaster aid toward core Republican areas
was the optimal strategy for maximizing votes in the
Presidential election.
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=798
**********************************************************
Political Methodology E-Mail List
Editors: Melanie Goodrich, <[log in to unmask]>
Delia Bailey, <[log in to unmask]>
**********************************************************
Send messages to [log in to unmask]
To join the list, cancel your subscription, or modify
your subscription settings visit:
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/polmeth.php
**********************************************************
|
