Title:      Rebels with a Cause? Legislative Activity and the
Personal Vote in Britain, 1997--2005

Authors:    Arthur Spirling

Entrydate:  2008-08-28 19:11:42

Keywords:   Westminster Systems, Accountability, Representation,
Random Forests

Abstract:   Does a Member of the British Parliament's voting
record have any effect on their constituency electoral
performance? Scholars have assumed not, else they have tested
the proposition with an extremely limited number of roll calls.
Congruent with public opinion findings we contend that,
paradoxically, voters conditionally reward both 'party unity'
and 'independent mindedness' in their elected representatives.
Using novel non-parametric `random forest' classification
procedures, and a new data set recording behavior on over 2000
roll calls from 1997-2001 and 2001-2005, along with commensurate
constituency controls, we thus show that MPs' popularity is
indeed affected by their legislative activity in small but
significant ways. In particular, government-party voters demand
unity on votes that are key parts of the government's
programmatic agenda, while welcoming more 'maverick' behavior on
less important issues.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=825

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