Title:      An Observational Study of Ballot Initiatives and
State Outcomes

Authors:    Luke Keele

Entrydate:  2009-07-17 12:55:41

Keywords:   causal inference, matching, ballot initiatives,
voter turnout, difference-in-differences

Abstract:   It has long been understood that the presence of the
ballot initiative process leads to different outcomes among
states. In general, extant research has found that the presence
of ballot initiatives tends to increase voter turnout and
depress state revenues and expenditures. I reconsider this
possibility and demonstrate that past findings are an artifact
of incorrect research design. Failure to account for differences
in states often leads to a confounding association between ballot
initiatives and voter turnout and fiscal policy. Here, I conduct
an observational study based on a counterfactual model of
inference to analyze the effects of ballot initiatives. The
resulting research design leads to two analyses. First, I
utilize the synthetic case control method, which allows me to
compare over time outcomes in states with initiatives to states
without initiatives while accounting for pretreatment baseline
differences across states. Second, I use matching to assess
voter turnout differences across metro areas along state
boundaries with and without ballot initiatives. In both
analyses, I find that ballot initiatives rarely have spillover
effects on voter turnout and state fiscal policy.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=918

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