Dear all:

I am analyzing the time that legislative proposals spend inside
Parliament.  When a bill is proposed, the time when it is “tabled” is
recorded (along with other covariates).  The bill then proceeds,
unobserved in my dataset, through the meanders of the legislative process.
 When, and if, a bill emerges, the duration of the spell in Parliament is
recorded.

Some bills fail to exit in a typical case of right-censoring: given enough
extra time, they would eventually emerge from the process and join the set
of legislation submitted to the executive for promulgation.

But there are also bills (most of them) that will never emerge: a
committee does not report them, or they fail a final passage vote, or they
are rejected by the second chamber, etc.  None of this is recorded in the
data.  In legislatures that permanently archive all that remains pending
by the time the assembly adjourns, this lack of detail is unproblematic:
all can be considered “dead” by the start of the new Parliament.

But in other parliaments, including the case at hand, all pending matter
is inherited by future parliaments.  I have records of proposals initiated
as long as 11 years before approval, 3 new parliaments afterwards.  And
this poses a problem of censoring that I am unfamiliar with.  A good deal
of the density that remains at risk after the last record is, in fact,
dead matter, which appears to violate the assumption behind duration
models with right-censored data.

Any comment or suggestions will be much appreciated.

Thank you!

--e
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Eric Magar
Ciencia Política - ITAM




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