A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.
Title: Who Punishes Extremist Nominees? Candidate Ideology and Turning Out the Base in U.S. Elections
Author(s): Andrew Hall, Daniel Thompson
Entry Date: 2016-11-06
Keyword(s): american elections, turnout, spatial modeling, regression discontinuity, polarization
Abstract: Political observers, campaign experts, and academics alike argue bitterly over whether it is more important for a party to capture ideologically moderate swing voters or to encourage turnout among hardcore partisans. We speak to this debate by examining the link between the ideology of congressional candidates and the turnout of their parties' bases in U.S. House races, 2006-2012. Combining a regression discontinuity design in close primary races with survey and administrative data on individual voter turnout, we find that extremist nominees suffer electorally, largely because they decrease their party's share of turnout in the general election, skewing the electorate towards their opponent's party. Along with shedding light on questions concerning the interplay of parties, voters, and candidates, the results help address the debate over swing voters and turning out the base. For our sample of elections, turnout appears to be the dominant force in determining election outcomes, but it advantages ideologically moderate candidates because extremists activate the opposing party's base more than their own.
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/node/1479
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