Title:      Giving Order to Districts: Estimating Voter
Distributions with National Election Returns

Authors:    Georgia Kernell

Entrydate:  2008-07-07 01:04:24

Keywords:   district ideology, voter distribution, election
returns

Abstract:   Correctly measuring district preferences is crucial
for empirical research on legislative responsiveness and voting
behavior. This article argues that the common practice of using
presidential vote shares to measure congressional district
ideology systematically produces incorrect estimates. I propose
an alternative method that employs multiple election returns to
estimate voters' ideological distributions within districts. I
develop two estimation procedures�a least squared error
model and a Bayesian model�and test each with simulations
and empirical applications. The models are shown to outperform
vote shares, and they are validated with direct measures of
voter ideology and out of sample election predictions. Beyond
estimating district ideology, these models provide valuable
information on constituency heterogeneity, an important but
understudied quality for understanding representatives'
strategic behavior.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=786

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