Title:      What will we know on Tuesday at 7pm?

Authors:    Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver

Entrydate:  2008-11-03 21:56:12

Keywords:   

Abstract:   Using 10,000 simulations from a probabilistic
election forecast, we compute the conditional distribution of
the Obama and McCain's vote margins and electoral vote totals,
given the outcomes of the states whose polls are the first to
close. We consider the scenario in which the vote margins are
available in each state, and separately consider the possibility
that we are only told each state's winner.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=847

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