Subject: | |
From: | |
Reply To: | |
Date: | Sat, 10 Jul 2010 19:50:23 -0500 |
Content-Type: | TEXT/PLAIN |
Parts/Attachments: |
|
|
A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.
Title: How Much is Minnesota Like Wisconsin? States as Counterfactuals
URL: http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1188
Author(s): Luke Keele and, William Minozzi
Entry Date: 07-10-2010
Keyword(s): causal inference, voter turnout, placebo tests, research
design
Abstract:
Political scientists are often interested in understanding whether state
laws alter individual level behavior. For example, states often alter
their election procedures, which can increase or decrease the cost of
voting. In this example, it is important to understand whether these
changes alter turnout since changes in costs may disproportionally affect
those at the margin of voting. Analysts have typically used one of two
different regression based research designs to estimate whether changes in
state laws increase or decrease turnout. In both instances, voters from
states without a change in laws are used as counterfactuals for the voters
who experience a change in election law. Here, we carefully examine the
assumptions behind both research designs and study their plausibility.
Next, we outline a series of research design elements that can be used in
addition to the usual designs. These research design elements allow the
analyst to better understand the role of unobserved confounders, which is
obscured in standard research designs. Using these design elements, we
demonstrate that what appears to be clear cut evidence from the usual
research designs is often a function confounding. We argue that to truly
understand how changes in voting costs alters turnout, a different
research design is required. Future work must rely on a research design
that makes comparisons among voters who live within the same state. Our
work has implications beyond turnout to any investigation of how state
level treatments alter individual behavior.
**********************************************************
Political Methodology E-Mail List
Editors: Xun Pang <[log in to unmask]>
Jon C. Rogowski <[log in to unmask]>
**********************************************************
Send messages to [log in to unmask]
To join the list, cancel your subscription, or modify
your subscription settings visit:
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/polmeth.php
**********************************************************
|
|
|