Title:      The 2008 Presidential Primaries through the Lens of
Prediction Markets

Authors:    Neil  Malhotra, Eirk Snowberg

Entrydate:  2009-01-16 11:30:11

Keywords:   

Abstract:   Abstract To explore the influence of primary results
during the 2008 nomination process we leverage a previously
unused methodology --- the analysis of prediction market
contracts. The unique structure of prediction markets allows us
to address two unexplored questions. First, we analyze whether
primary results affect candidates' chances in the general
election, as candidates who take strong positions during the
nomination contest may be unable to easily appeal to centrist
voters in the general election. We also assess whether states
with early primaries, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, have a
disproportionate effect on the nominating process. We show that
the length of the primary season has a minimal impact of the
electability of candidates in the general election, and that
some states have a disproportionate impact on the nominating
process. However, the states that have the largest impact are
not necessarily New Hampshire and Iowa, the states that have
often been assumed to be the most influential because of their
early position on the primary calendar.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=887

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