Dear Political Methodologists, and all,
hi. Registration is now available for the 17th Annual
Northeast Political Methodology Meeting, Friday, May 5,
at New York University.
Consistent with the adage that the best methodology is better
data, we will be focusing on interesting data this year, with
2 papers specifically on the 2016 US election and one looking
at campaigns across many more elections. [Abstracts for 2
of the 3 at the bottom of this message.]
Lunch and all papers will be in room 217 of the Politics
Department (19 W. 4th Street - corner of W. 4th Street and Mercer Street).
Information and a link for registration are available at:
http://www.nyu.edu/projects/politicsdatalab/activities_nemp.html
Note that registration will close Friday April 28.
We start at 11:30, do lunch, and then we will do 3 papers,
with lots of time for discussion.
11:30 - 12:30: Lunch
12:30 - 2:00 Joshua L Kalla, UC Berkeley
"The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact
on Candidate Choice in General Elections:
Evidence from 45 Experiments"
[Joint with with David Broockman, Stanford]
2:15 - 3:45: Michelle Torres and Patrick Tucker, Wash U St Louis
"Pathways to Trump: Republican Primary Voters in 2017"
[Joint with Betsy Sinclair and Steve Smith]
4:00 - 5:30: Brian Schaffner, UMass Amherst
"Explaining White Polarization in the 2016 Vote for Presdient:
The Sobering Role of Racism and Sexism"
[Joint with Matthrew MacWilliams and Tatishe Nteta]
5:30 - 6:30: Post Paper Discussion Event
6:45 Dinner for Speakers and Invited Faculty Guests
Please circulate this to anyone you think may be interested.
Hope to see many of you at NYU on May 5.
-jonathan nagler
Professor, Department of Politics
Co-Director, NYU Social Media and Political Participation Lab
Abstract for Kalla:
Significant theories of public opinion, polarization, and campaign
finance hinge on how and whether campaign contact and advertising
persuades Americans to vote differently. We argue that the best
estimate of the marginal effects of campaign contact on Americans’
candidate choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic
meta-analysis of decades of exper- iments estimates an effect of
campaign contact on vote choice in general elections of zero. Second,
we present a series of original field experiments that together increase
the quantity of statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive
effects of personal contact in gen- eral elections by 10-fold. In both
the literature and our studies, we show an intriguing pattern wherein
persuasion in general elections typically only appears when outreach
is conducted far in advance of an election and measured immediately—but
that this early persuasion decays rapidly, while contact close to election
day does not even have immediate effects. Our findings raise new questions
about the generalizability of studies conducted far from elections that
measure outcomes immediately. Substantively, they may help explain why
campaigns have turned away from trying to win over moderate voters and
toward rousing the enthusiasm of existing supporters to turn out.
Abstract for Torres and Tucker:
Abstract: The candidacy of Donald Trump has drawn considerable social
science interest as a way to understand the interplay between attitudinal
explanations, covariates, and momentum. In particular, arguments about the
working class, personality, race, populism and Trump's domination of the
media serve as competing (but not mutually exclusive) explanations for
Trump's electoral success. In this paper we rely upon a unique monthly
panel dataset to explore changing support for Republican presidential
candidates over the primary season, test competing theories regarding the
attitudinal shifts that propelled the Trump candidacy forward, and evaluate
the influence of perceptions of success that respondents held about Trump
and the decision to support him during the primaries.
Professor, Department of Politics
Affiliated Faculty - Data Science
Co-Director, NYU Social Media and Political Participation Lab
##############################################################################
Jonathan Nagler [log in to unmask]
Department of Politics Voice (o): 212 992-9676
19 West 4th Street - Room 307 Fax:
New York University http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/JonathanNagler
New York, NY 10012-1119 http://smapp.nyu.edu
Twitter: @Jonathan_Nagler
##############################################################################
**************************************************************
Political Methodology E-Mail List
Editors: Jonathan Homola <[log in to unmask]>
Michelle Torres <[log in to unmask]>
**************************************************************
Send messages to [log in to unmask]
To join the list, cancel your subscription, or modify
your subscription settings visit:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/membership/spm/mailing-list
**************************************************************
|
