A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.

 Title:     The 2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis and the 2012 House Elections: A Research Design

Author(s):     Jamie Monogan

Entry Date:     2012-11-06

Keyword(s):     registration, causal inference, coarsened exact matching, congressional elections

Abstract:      On August 1, 2011, the House of Representatives voted to raise the federal debt ceiling as well as to make cuts in discretionary spending. Although this vote allowed the federal government to avoid default, raising the debt ceiling was unpopular with the public and the vote cut across party lines. This paper proposes a research design for evaluating the effect of a House member's vote on the debt ceiling on two outcomes: the member's ability to retain his or her seat through the 2012 general election, and the incumbent's share of the two-party vote for members who face a general election competitor.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1377

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