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Date: | Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:11:27 -0500 |
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A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.
Title: Inferring Strategic Voting
Author(s): Kei Kawai and Yasutora Watanabe
Entry Date: 07-16-2010
Keyword(s): Partial Identification, Set Estimation, Strategic Voting
URL: http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1197
Abstract:
We estimate a model of strategic voting and quantify the impact it has on
election outcomes. Because the model exhibits multiplicity of outcomes, we
adopt a set estimator. Using Japanese general-election data, we find a
large fraction [75.3%, 80.3%] of strategic voters, only a small fraction
[2.4%, 5.5%] of whom voted for a candidate other than the one they most
preferred (misaligned voting). Existing empirical literature has not
distinguished between the two, estimating misaligned voting instead of
strategic voting. Accordingly, while our estimate of strategic voting is
high, our estimate of misaligned voting is comparable to previous studies.
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