Title:      Measuring the Effects of Voter Confidence on
Political Participation

Authors:    Ines Levin, R. Michael Alvarez

Entrydate:  2009-06-22 12:20:45

Keywords:   voter confidence, turnout, participation, mexico,
matching, causal effects

Abstract:   In this paper we study the causal effect of voter
confidence on participation decisions in the 2006 Mexican
Election. Previous research has shown that voter confidence was
a relevant factor in explaining participation during the years
of the PRI hegemony. An open question is whether this
relationship is still significant after the democratic
transition taking place in the years 1997-2000. Moreover, in the
previous literature, this problem was studied in a regression
framework. In this article we argue that, since voter confidence
and participation decisions are affected by similar covariates, a
regression approach may lead to results which are too model
dependent, and do not account for the heterogeneity of effects
across voters. To solve this problem, we use matching methods,
and find that voter confidence has considerable effects on
participation decisions, but substantially different in
magnitude from those found using the usual regression approach.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=907

**********************************************************
             Political Methodology E-Mail List
   Editors: Xun Pang        <[log in to unmask]>
            Jon C. Rogowski <[log in to unmask]>
**********************************************************
        Send messages to [log in to unmask]
  To join the list, cancel your subscription, or modify
           your subscription settings visit:

          http://polmeth.wustl.edu/polmeth.php

**********************************************************