A new document has been added to the Society for Political Methodology Website.

 Title:     Estimating the Effects of Unemployment on Voter Turnout

Author(s):     Matthew Incantalupo

Entry Date:     2011-08-01

Keyword(s):     design-based inference, causal inference, voting, participation, turnout, unemployment, inequality

Abstract:      Unemployed Americans face numerous hardships: lost income, financial uncertainty, family struggles, strained or broken social ties, and issues with both mental and physical health. Job loss is a profound personal experience, but unlike many other consequences of hard economic times, it has not been strongly linked to changes in political behavior. In this study, I identify a causal link between involuntary job loss and reported voter turnout in recent elections. Under low unemployment, job loss has a negative effect on voter turnout. During a period of high unemployment, such as the one caused by the current economic recession, job loss has a positive effect on voter turnout.

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1292

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