Hi,
My colleague Matthew Wall and I used the above-mentioned bookmakers’ data on
candidates’ odds of winning a seat in the 2007 election in Ireland. The
article using these data is forthcoming in the Journal of Information
Technology and Politics Vol. 7, Issue 2 and is entitled ‘"Every little
helps”: Cyber-campaigning in the 2007 Irish General Election’. Manuscripts
are available on request.
We used the odds to separate ‘frontrunner’ from ‘outsider’ candidates. We
did not combine these candidate-level data to make constituency-level
measures of marginality: however, one approach that suggests itself would be
to look at the ratio of ‘frontrunner’ candidates (say with odds of 3/1 or
better) to the number of seats available.
All the best,
Laura
--
Dr. Maria Laura Sudulich
Department of Political Science
University of Amsterdam
Oudezijds Achterburgwal 237
1012 DL Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 020 525 4790
Skype: laurasudulich
On 27 May 2010 22:28, Kenneth Benoit <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Hi - Michael Marsh and I have used various candidate-based measures of
> competitiveness in m={3,4,5} multi-seat constituencies in the Irish Single
> Transferable Vote elections. Some of these are party-based, while others
> have been based on a subjective determination of marginality prior to the
> campaign period. (See below for cites.) In the Ireland 2007 election we
> also recorded bookmakers' odds as a measure of marginality, although we
> never used this in our any analysis yet. I have heard of other studies
> however that use betting odds as a measure of competitiveness, and these are
> almost always candidate-based.
>
> See:
> Kenneth Benoit and Michael Marsh. 2010. “Incumbent and Challenger Campaign
> Spending Effects in Proportional Electoral Systems: The Irish Elections of
> 2002.” Political Research Quarterly 63(1, March): 159-173.
> http://www.kenbenoit.net/pdfs/Benoit_Marsh_PRQ_2010.pdf. Uses measures
> based on prior vote as an instrument for competitiveness.
>
> Kenneth Benoit and Michael Marsh. 2008. “The Campaign Value of Incumbency:
> A New Solution to the Puzzle of Less Effective Incumbent Spending.” American
> Journal of Political Science 52(4, October): 874-890.
> http://www.kenbenoit.net/pdfs/ajps_348.pdf. Similar to above.
>
> Good luck!
>
> Ken
>
>
> Kenneth Benoit
> Professor of Quantitative Social Sciences
> Head, Department of Political Science
> Trinity College
> Dublin 2, Ireland
> http://kenbenoit.net
> Tel: 353-1-896-2491
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On 27 May 2010, at 18:07, James Curry wrote:
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Does anyone know if anyone has developed any measures of district
> competitiveness for multi-member legislative districts that don't just
> measure the level of party competition in the district (i.e. Niemi, Jackman,
> and Winsky 1991) but instead measure competition among ALL the candidates
> running in each MMD regardless of party? Or is this unexplored?
> >
> > Many thanks in advance for any help provided.
> >
> > Jim
> >
> >
> > James M Curry
> > Ph.D. Candidate
> > Research Assistant, Center for American Politics and Citizenship
> > Department of Government & Politics
> > University of Maryland, College Park
> > 3140 Tydings Hall
> > College Park, MD 20742
> > Office: 3100 Morrill Hall
> >
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