This newest research paper on post-election auditing that was begun in
January 2009 is now finished.

Title: “Checking election outcome accuracy – Post-election audit sampling”
Author: Kathy Dopp
Date: July 17, 2009

“Checking election outcome accuracy – Post-election audit sampling”
advances and improves upon existing risk-limiting post-election audit
sampling methodology.”

New more precise calculations show that somewhat larger, more
conservative sample sizes are needed in order to achieve a desired
high minimum probability to detect and correct initial incorrect
election outcomes.

Post-election audit sampling methods have been the subject of
extensive recent research. This article

*  provides an overview of post-election audit sampling research and
compares various approaches for calculating post-election audit sample
sizes, focusing on risk-limiting audits,

*  discusses fundamental concepts common to all risk-limiting
post-election audits, presenting new margin error bounds, sampling
weights and sampling probabilities that improve upon existing
approaches and work for any size audit unit and for single or
multi-winner election contests,

*  provides two new simple formulas for estimating post-election audit
sample sizes in cases when detailed data, expertise, or tools are not
available,

*  summarizes four improved methods for calculating risk-limiting
election audit sample sizes, showing how to apply precise margin error
bounds to improve the accuracy and efficacy of existing methods, and

*  discusses common sampling mistakes that reduce post-election audit
effectiveness.

Adequate post-election audit sampling is crucial because analyzing
discrepancies found in too-small samples can determine little except
that the sample size is inadequate unless deliberate vote fraud is
excluded as a possibility.

This article is one of three new articles in a series “Checking
Election Outcome Accuracy”. The other two articles discuss
post-election auditing procedures and an algorithm for deciding
whether to increase the sample or to certify the election outcome in
response to discrepancies found during a post-election audit.

Read the entire article on-line:
"Checking Election Outcome Accuracy -- Post-Election Auditing Sampling"

http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/PEAuditSamplingMethods.pdf
or at
http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3166v1 (You may need an account to view it here.)

Cheers,

Kathy Dopp, MS Mathematics
LWV, UT

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